While the first Saturday in May gets a lot of mainstream attention, the Classic season in U.S. racing actually kicks off with the opening leg of the Filly Triple Crown- the Kentucky Oaks.
The race will take place on Friday, May 2, 2025, and a talented field of fillies is expected to go to post. The field will compete over 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs, with contenders bidding to join the likes of recent winners such as Thorpedo Anna, Secret Oath, and Malathaat.
But, what are some of the betting strategies that could be followed in the race this year?
Assess The Record of Trainers
Certain trainers have dominated the Oaks throughout modern history, but there has been no one dominant yard in the race. That is reflected by runners from six different yards winning the race since 2019.
However, a general rule when it comes to the Oaks is to consider runners from the Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher yards. The latter has recorded wins in four editions of the race, while Cox has secured wins in two renewals.
Even when the trainers aren’t sending out winners of the race, they are coming close, with Pletcher saddling runners-up in back-to-back years in 2022 and 2023, and Cox settling for third and fourth in 2023. Both yards will have classy contenders once again in 2025.
Find more information here: twinspires.com/kentucky-oaks/winners/
Follow Prep Races
Just like the Kentucky Derby, runners that will be hoping to line up in the Oaks field will need to gain qualification based on their performances in preps.
Trends indicate that Fair Grounds has been a track that has produced the most winners of the race in recent memory, with as many as half of the last 20 winners lining up at least once at the Louisiana track as a three-year-old.
Six fillies since 2012 have continued this trend, with a run in the G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes. Meanwhile, eight winners since 2004 have lined up in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Both races should be examined when pinpointing the most likely winner at Churchill Downs in 2025.
Examine Recent Form
Bettors will typically latch onto horses with a winning sequence, but that isn’t necessarily the best tactic when it comes to the Oaks.
That is indicated by the fact that ten Oaks winners over the last 20 years have travelled to Churchill Downs after losing efforts. That trend wasn’t worth following last year, as Thorpedo Anna landed a dominant win at Churchill Downs.
But, it remains to be seen whether any three-year-old in the field this year boasts the same superstar qualities as the Kenneth McPeek filly.
Don’t Follow The Market
While the betting market is incredibly important to consider, the trends do indicate that the prices are typically worth taking on.
There has only been one winning favorite in the race in the last ten years, with Malathaat obliging at 5/2 in 2021. Long shots have upset the odds in the race, with an eye-catching 47/1 winner coming in the form of Lemons Forever in 2006.
Other big price winners in the Oaks include Pretty Mischievous, Serengeti Empress, and Shedaresthedevil.
Who Are The Leading Oaks Contenders in 2025?
Good Cheer
Good Cheer could go off as one of the shortest Oaks favorites in recent memory for trainer Brad Cox. The three-year-old filly is already a four-time winner in stakes company and has won two notable prep races at Fair Grounds this year, including the G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes and G2 Fair Grounds Oaks.
It only furthers her claims that she has three wins at Churchill Downs to her name, and no rival has yet got to within two lengths of the three-year-old.
Quietside
Quietside was beaten by two lengths by Good Cheer in the G2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs last November, but no rival has got any nearer to the current favorite to this point.
The John Alexander Ortiz-trained runner still appears to be improving, and confidence levels surrounding her chances will be high after a pair of dominant wins at Oaklawn Park. The latest of those saw her battle back to beat Simply Joking by just under a length in the G2 Fantasy Stakes.
La Cara
Mark Casse-trained La Cara could be a very interesting contender at a bigger price. The three-year-old produced a career best effort to land the G1 Ashland Stakes at the start of April, and connections are hopeful that she could yet improve further before the big day at Churchill Downs.
She has plenty of stamina in her pedigree, and a win in a big field at Churchill Downs last year in the G3 Pocahontas Stakes reads very well.
Ballerina d’Oro
Chad Brown’s Ballerina d’Oro could be one of the improving runners in the field to keep tabs on. The three-year-old was winless in three starts before breaking her maiden with a battling display to beat Early On by a nose in the G3 Gazelle Stakes.
She had looked incredibly green on her earlier starts, but something finally looked to have clicked on her latest run at Aqueduct.
